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1 - 12 de 12 resultados para “philip e tetlock”
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  • Superforecasting

    The Art and Science of Prediction

    de Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ...
    NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people ... Leer más

    $9.99 USD

  • Expert Political Judgment

    How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition

    de Philip E. Tetlock ...
    Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions ... Leer más

    $20.19 USD

  • HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk (with bonus article "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk" by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart)

    de Harvard Business Review, Robert S. Kaplan, Condoleezza Rice, Philip E. Tetlock, Paul J. H. Schoemaker ...
    Series series HBR's 10 Must Reads
    Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks?If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear.This book will inspire you to:Avoid the most common errors in risk ... Leer más

    $17.99 USD o gratis con Kobo Plus

  • Comment être visionnaire

    de Dan Gardner, Philip E. Tetlock ...
    Traducido por François Tharaud ...
    " Les techniques et les façons de penser exposées dans ce livre sont précieuses pour quiconque s'intéresse à ce que l'avenir nous réserve. En d'autres termes, pour tout le monde. " The EconomistTout le monde aimerait connaître l'avenir pour prendre les bonnes décisions politiques, économiques, ou pour lancer un nouveau produit.Malheureusement, nous avons tendance à être de piètres prévisionnistes. ... Leer más

    $19.99 USD

  • Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

    Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

    Edición de Philip E. Tetlock, Aaron Belkin ...
    Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett ... Leer más

    $58.99 USD

  • Superforecasting – Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose

    de Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ...
    Traducido por Jürgen Neubauer ...
    Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch ›Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose‹ eine Anleitung für treffsichere Prognosen in einer unsicheren Zeit.»Superforecaster« sind Menschen, denen erstaunlich gute Vorhersagen in allen Bereichen gelingen – bessere als den Experten. Was macht sie so besonders? In einem ... Leer más

    $15.99 USD o gratis con Kobo Plus

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  • The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

    General Thinking Concepts

    de Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien ...
    Series Libro 1 - The Great Mental Models Series
    Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast.This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you.Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger ... Leer más

    $15.99 USD

  • The Great Mental Models, Volume 3

    Systems and Mathematics

    de Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien, Rosie Leizrowice ...
    Series Libro 3 - The Great Mental Models Series
    **From the New York Times bestselling author of Clear Thinking and Farnam Street founder, Shane Parrish.The third book in the timeless Great Mental Models series.**Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields.Mastering a small number of mental models ... Leer más

    $15.99 USD

  • Humor, Seriously

    Why Humor Is a Secret Weapon in Business and Life (And how anyone can harness it. Even you.)

    de Jennifer Aaker, Naomi Bagdonas ...
    WALL STREET JOURNAL, LOS ANGELES TIMES, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER • Anyone—even you!—can learn how to harness the power of humor in business (and life), based on the popular class at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business.Don’t miss the authors’ TED Talk, “Why great leaders take humor seriously,” online now.“The ultimate guide to using the magical power of funny as a tool for leadership and a force ... Leer más

    $9.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

  • The Great Mental Models, Volume 4

    Economics and Art

    de Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien ...
    Series Libro 4 - The Great Mental Models Series
    **From the New York Times bestselling author of Clear Thinking and Farnam Street founder, Shane Parrish.The fourth and final installment in the timeless Great Mental Models series.**Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields.Mastering a small ... Leer más

    $15.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

  • A Field Guide to Lies

    Critical Thinking with Statistics and the Scientific Method

    de Daniel J. Levitin ...
    **Winner of the National Business Book AwardFrom the New York Times bestselling author of The Organized Mind and This Is Your Brain on Music, a primer to the critical thinking that is more necessary now than ever**We are bombarded with more information each day than our brains can process—especially in election season. It's raining bad data, half-truths, and even outright lies. New York Times ... Leer más

    Antes $10.99 USD Ahora $5.99 USD

  • The Great Mental Models, Volume 2

    Physics, Chemistry, and Biology

    de Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien ...
    Series Libro 2 - The Great Mental Models Series
    **From the New York Times bestselling author of Clear Thinking and Farnam Street founder, Shane Parrish.The second book in the timeless Great Mental Models series.**Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields.Mastering a small number of mental ... Leer más

    $15.99 USD